Redwire Corp RDW
Mixed (early) Space sector · Space infrastructure components and in-space manufacturing.
🗓 Reports earnings in 74 days (2026-11-04) — calendar context, not a prediction.
Redwire Corp (RDW) is an early-stage Space company, graded Mixed (early) on FrontierLab's evidence-based quality rubric (data as of 2026-08-21). Revenue grew 63.1% year-over-year at a 20.1% gross margin. Gross-profits-to-assets is 0.04; Rule of 40 is 12.8. Net share issuance 146.2% YoY (heavy issuance). 4 risk flags are noted below. Analyst mix: 10 buy / 3 hold / 1 sell.
These sentences are generated from the day's data by deterministic templates.
Key quality signals
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 63.1% |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 20.1% |
| Gross profits / assets | 0.04 |
| Rule of 40 | 12.8 |
| Net margin | -50.3% |
| Cash runway (months) | 87.8 |
| PEG | — |
| Price / sales | 6.6 |
Quality checklist
Each line is one quality test behind the grade — ✓ passed · ~ borderline · ✗ failed. Hover a metric in the tables below for what it means.
- ✓ Revenue growth — 63.1% (pass ≥ 20%)
- ✓ Capital efficiency
- ✗ Gross margin — 20.1% (pass ≥ 45% · Space)
- ✓ Gross-margin trend — 17.6 (pass ≥ 2)
- ~ Share dilution — 146.2%
- ✗ Competitive moat — None
- ~ Market size (TAM) — Mod
Grade history
- 2026-08-07 — Mixed (early) (from Weak)
- 2026-06-10 — Weak (first graded)
Every grade change since FrontierLab began tracking this name — the receipts behind the current grade.
How have Early-stage-graded names performed?
The forward returns of all Early-stage-graded names since each grade was recorded — the bucket this name currently sits in, not a forecast of this individual stock.
| Window | Forward record vs the S&P | Median |
|---|---|---|
| ~1 month | 69% of Early-stage-graded names beat the S&P over 21 sessions (95% CI 51–82%, N=32). | Median excess vs the S&P was +3.9%. |
| ~3 months | building — 13 more sessions needed | |
| ~6 months | building — 76 more sessions needed | |
How have this name's flags scored?
| Flag | N | Mean excess vs S&P |
|---|---|---|
| Burning cash — operating margin is negative. | 35 | +7.4% |
| Thin gross margin — keeps little of each sales dollar (judge it against its industry). | 20 | +2.1% |
| Heavy dilution (~146%/yr) — top-decile share issuers have historically underperformed. | sample still too small to report (need ≥ 8) | |
| Parabolic one-day spike (+15%) in the last month — extreme single-day moves tend to mean-revert. | sample still too small to report (need ≥ 8) | |
These per-flag figures are observational — a flag firing is not a randomized assignment, so any edge can reflect what kind of names trip a flag, not the flag itself. Descriptive, not causal.
Scope: these are forward returns vs the S&P among names still covered at each horizon's end, within the curated universe — not a survivorship-clean whole-market backtest. Names later dropped from coverage are counted as attrition (not hidden), and single-session moves beyond ±300% are treated as split/data artifacts and excluded. How this is measured → · Full track record →
How it compares
Coarse same-sector, same-stage context — not a percentile or rank. GP/A is graded on its absolute level, not position.
Fundamentals
| Market cap | $2.81B |
|---|---|
| Stage | Early |
| Share issuance (YoY) | 146.2% · heavy issuance |
| Moat | None |
| TAM | MOD |
| P/E (trailing) | — |
| EPS (trailing) | $-1.46 |
| Burn multiple | 0.2 |
| Gross-margin trend (pts) | 17.6 |
| Cash / assets | 0.29 |
| Accruals (%) | -9.7% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | — |
| Statements as of | Q2 FY2026 · filed 2026-08-06 |
Momentum context — describes the past, not a signal
Low reached Nov 20, 2025 · high reached May 28, 2026 — by daily close.
| Price | $11.77 (as of 2026-08-20) |
|---|---|
| Last session move | — |
| % off 52-wk high | -55.8% |
| RSI (14) | 50 |
| Relative volume | 0.8× |
Risk flags
Positive signals
Insider activity (90 days)
| Cluster buyers | 0 |
|---|---|
| Sellers | 1 |
Insider selling is routine diversification, not a bearish signal.
Analyst mix
| Strong buy | 1 |
|---|---|
| Buy | 9 |
| Hold | 3 |
| Sell | 1 |
| Strong sell | 0 |
Ratings are context, not a price target. "Momentum" = how the mix changed over recent weeks, not a forecast.
AI take — daily, AI-generated
AI leans cautious
Redwire has decent 63.1% growth and 88-month runway, but weak 20.1% margins and minimal profit per share make it a speculative bet in a crowded space sector—lack of recent news is a red flag.
Generated by an AI model from the day's news — an opinion for context only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a price target.
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Data as of 2026-08-21 08:12 (end-of-day). How grades are computed →