AST SpaceMobile, Inc. ASTS
Promising (early) Space sector · Building a space-based cell network that connects ordinary phones.
🗓 Reports earnings in 34 days (2026-11-09) — calendar context, not a prediction.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) is a Space company, graded Promising (early) on FrontierLab's evidence-based quality rubric (data as of 2026-10-05). Revenue grew 2256.9% year-over-year at a -14% gross margin. Gross-profits-to-assets is 0; Rule of 40 is 1737.4. Net share issuance 23.6% YoY (heavy issuance). 5 risk flags are noted below. Analyst mix: 11 buy / 8 hold / 2 sell. 1 distinct insider cluster-buyer in the last 90 days. Track record: 27% of Early-stage-graded names beat the S&P over 63 sessions (95% CI 15–44%, N=33). Median excess vs the S&P was -14.6%.
These sentences are generated from the day's data by deterministic templates.
Key quality signals
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 2256.9% |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | -14% |
| Gross profits / assets | 0 |
| Rule of 40 | 1737.4 |
| Net margin | -519.5% |
| Cash runway (months) | 120 |
| PEG | — |
| Price / sales | 206.3 |
Quality checklist
Each line is one quality test behind the grade — ✓ passed · ~ borderline · ✗ failed. Hover a metric in the tables below for what it means.
- ~ Revenue growth — 2256.9% (pass ≥ 20%)
- ✓ Capital efficiency
- ✗ Gross margin — -14% (pass ≥ 45% · Space)
- ✓ Gross-margin trend — 442.1 (pass ≥ 2)
- ✓ Share dilution — 23.6%
- ~ Competitive moat — Narrow
- ✓ Market size (TAM) — Large
Grade history
Graded Promising (early) since 2026-06-10 — no grade changes recorded yet.
How have Early-stage-graded names performed?
The forward returns of all Early-stage-graded names since each grade was recorded — the bucket this name currently sits in, not a forecast of this individual stock.
| Window | Forward record vs the S&P | Median |
|---|---|---|
| ~1 month | 45% of Early-stage-graded names beat the S&P over 21 sessions (95% CI 29–62%, N=31). | Median excess vs the S&P was -3.2%. |
| ~3 months | 27% of Early-stage-graded names beat the S&P over 63 sessions (95% CI 15–44%, N=33). | Median excess vs the S&P was -14.6%. |
| ~6 months | building — 46 more sessions needed | |
How have this name's flags scored?
| Flag | N | Mean excess vs S&P |
|---|---|---|
| Burning cash — operating margin is negative. | 36 | -6.5% |
| Thin gross margin — keeps little of each sales dollar (judge it against its industry). | 21 | -18.4% |
| Heavy dilution (~24%/yr) — top-decile share issuers have historically underperformed. | sample still too small to report (need ≥ 8) | |
| Hyper-expansion — assets up ~211% in a year; aggressive expanders have historically lagged. | sample still too small to report (need ≥ 8) | |
| News: litigation or regulatory action in the headlines. | sample still too small to report (need ≥ 8) | |
These per-flag figures are observational — a flag firing is not a randomized assignment, so any edge can reflect what kind of names trip a flag, not the flag itself. Descriptive, not causal.
Scope: these are forward returns vs the S&P among names still covered at each horizon's end, within the curated universe — not a survivorship-clean whole-market backtest. Names later dropped from coverage are counted as attrition (not hidden), and single-session moves beyond ±300% are treated as split/data artifacts and excluded. How this is measured → · Full track record →
How it compares
Coarse same-sector, same-stage context — not a percentile or rank. GP/A is graded on its absolute level, not position.
Fundamentals
| Market cap | $23.78B |
|---|---|
| Stage | Early |
| Share issuance (YoY) | 23.6% · heavy issuance |
| Moat | Narrow |
| TAM | LARGE |
| P/E (trailing) | — |
| EPS (trailing) | $-2.16 |
| Burn multiple | 1.3 |
| Gross-margin trend (pts) | 442.1 |
| Cash / assets | 0.39 |
| Accruals (%) | -12.3% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | — |
| Statements as of | Q2 FY2026 · filed 2026-08-10 |
Momentum context — describes the past, not a signal
Low reached Nov 20, 2025 · high reached May 28, 2026 — by daily close.
| Price | $58.45 (as of 2026-10-02) |
|---|---|
| Last session move | — |
| % off 52-wk high | -56.3% |
| RSI (14) | 45 |
| Relative volume | 1.5× |
Risk flags
Positive signals
Insider activity (90 days)
| Cluster buyers | 1 |
|---|---|
| Sellers | 2 |
Insider selling is routine diversification, not a bearish signal.
Analyst mix
| Strong buy | 2 |
|---|---|
| Buy | 9 |
| Hold | 8 |
| Sell | 2 |
| Strong sell | 0 |
▲ Analyst view improving — coverage 20→21 analysts over ~5 weeks (per aggregated analyst ratings)
Ratings are context, not a price target. "Momentum" = how the mix changed over recent weeks, not a forecast.
From the headlines
AST SpaceMobile faces class action allegations over funding model; stock down 31% in three months.
- AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Is Down 5.4% After Class Action Allegations Over Funding Model - What's Changed
- AST SpaceMobile Stock Is Down 31% in Three Months. Buy the Dip or Wait for More Launches?
- AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird Progress Comes With Several Risks Still Unresolved
- SpaceX Climbs 6% on Fresh Falcon 9 Rideshare Launch; Rocket Lab Jumps 7%, AST SpaceMobile Ticks Up
AI take — daily, AI-generated
AI leans cautious
Hypergrowth (2256.9%) is eye-catching, but negative gross margins (-14%), zero profitability, a class-action lawsuit, and 31% recent decline signal this is pre-revenue hype masking real business risk—retail enthusiasm doesn't fix the fundamentals.
Generated by an AI model from the day's news — an opinion for context only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a price target.
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Data as of 2026-10-05 08:19 (end-of-day). How grades are computed →