Intuitive Machines, Inc. LUNR
Weak (early) Space sector · Lunar landers and NASA services — moonshot economics, literally.
🗓 Reports earnings in 82 days (2026-11-12) — calendar context, not a prediction.
Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) is an early-stage Space company, graded Weak (early) on FrontierLab's evidence-based quality rubric (data as of 2026-08-21). Revenue grew 116.5% year-over-year at a 27.3% gross margin. Gross-profits-to-assets is 0.07; Rule of 40 is 89. Net share issuance 51.4% YoY (heavy issuance). 5 risk flags are noted below. Analyst mix: 14 buy / 2 hold / 1 sell.
These sentences are generated from the day's data by deterministic templates.
Key quality signals
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 116.5% |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 27.3% |
| Gross profits / assets | 0.07 |
| Rule of 40 | 89 |
| Net margin | -27.5% |
| Cash runway (months) | 34.2 |
| PEG | — |
| Price / sales | 5.8 |
Quality checklist
Each line is one quality test behind the grade — ✓ passed · ~ borderline · ✗ failed. Hover a metric in the tables below for what it means.
- ✓ Revenue growth — 116.5% (pass ≥ 20%)
- ✓ Capital efficiency
- ~ Gross margin — 27.3% (pass ≥ 45% · Space)
- ✓ Gross-margin trend — 8.4 (pass ≥ 2)
- ~ Share dilution — 51.4%
- ✗ Competitive moat — None
- ~ Market size (TAM) — Mod
- ✗ Solvency (can it pay its debts?) — warning signs of financial trouble are present, which caps the grade at Weak at best
Grade history
- 2026-08-17 — Weak (early) (from Promising (early))
- 2026-06-10 — Promising (early) (first graded)
Every grade change since FrontierLab began tracking this name — the receipts behind the current grade.
How have Early-stage-graded names performed?
The forward returns of all Early-stage-graded names since each grade was recorded — the bucket this name currently sits in, not a forecast of this individual stock.
| Window | Forward record vs the S&P | Median |
|---|---|---|
| ~1 month | 69% of Early-stage-graded names beat the S&P over 21 sessions (95% CI 51–82%, N=32). | Median excess vs the S&P was +3.9%. |
| ~3 months | building — 13 more sessions needed | |
| ~6 months | building — 76 more sessions needed | |
How have this name's flags scored?
| Flag | N | Mean excess vs S&P |
|---|---|---|
| Burning cash — operating margin is negative. | 35 | +7.4% |
| Thin gross margin — keeps little of each sales dollar (judge it against its industry). | 20 | +2.1% |
| Heavy dilution (~51%/yr) — top-decile share issuers have historically underperformed. | sample still too small to report (need ≥ 8) | |
| Distress signs — negative retained earnings, negative operating cash flow, and liabilities above assets. | sample still too small to report (need ≥ 8) | |
| Hyper-expansion — assets up ~297% in a year; aggressive expanders have historically lagged. | sample still too small to report (need ≥ 8) | |
These per-flag figures are observational — a flag firing is not a randomized assignment, so any edge can reflect what kind of names trip a flag, not the flag itself. Descriptive, not causal.
Scope: these are forward returns vs the S&P among names still covered at each horizon's end, within the curated universe — not a survivorship-clean whole-market backtest. Names later dropped from coverage are counted as attrition (not hidden), and single-session moves beyond ±300% are treated as split/data artifacts and excluded. How this is measured → · Full track record →
How it compares
Coarse same-sector, same-stage context — not a percentile or rank. GP/A is graded on its absolute level, not position.
Fundamentals
| Market cap | $2.86B |
|---|---|
| Stage | Early |
| Share issuance (YoY) | 51.4% · heavy issuance |
| Moat | None |
| TAM | MOD |
| P/E (trailing) | — |
| EPS (trailing) | $-0.94 |
| Burn multiple | 0.3 |
| Gross-margin trend (pts) | 8.4 |
| Cash / assets | 0.19 |
| Accruals (%) | -0.2% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | — |
| Statements as of | Q2 FY2026 · filed 2026-08-13 |
Momentum context — describes the past, not a signal
Low reached Nov 20, 2025 · high reached May 28, 2026 — by daily close.
| Price | $17.93 (as of 2026-08-20) |
|---|---|
| Last session move | — |
| % off 52-wk high | -61.6% |
| RSI (14) | 54 |
| Relative volume | 0.7× |
Risk flags
Positive signals
Insider activity (90 days)
| Cluster buyers | 0 |
|---|---|
| Sellers | 3 |
Insider selling is routine diversification, not a bearish signal.
Analyst mix
| Strong buy | 3 |
|---|---|
| Buy | 11 |
| Hold | 2 |
| Sell | 1 |
| Strong sell | 0 |
▲ Analyst view improving — net +1 buy rating, coverage 16→17 analysts over ~4 weeks (per aggregated analyst ratings)
Ratings are context, not a price target. "Momentum" = how the mix changed over recent weeks, not a forecast.
From the headlines
Intuitive Machines secures $600M satellite program post-earnings; analyst maintains buy with lower target.
- Canaccord Genuity Maintains Buy on Intuitive Machines, Lowers Price Target to $39
- Intuitive Machines Stock Edges Lower Tuesday: What's Happening?
- Intuitive Machines Secures $600 Million Satellite Program Following Strong Earnings
AI take — daily, AI-generated
AI leans cautious
Intuitive Machines shows strong 116.5% growth and just landed a $600M contract, but only 34 months of runway and weak profitability metrics suggest the stock is running on momentum rather than fundamentals.
Generated by an AI model from the day's news — an opinion for context only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a price target.
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Data as of 2026-08-21 08:12 (end-of-day). How grades are computed →