PayPal Holdings, Inc. PYPL
Weak Fintech sector · Global online-payments network (PayPal/Venmo) — huge scale, fighting to reaccelerate growth.
▼ Downgraded Insufficient → Weak on 2026-08-07.
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) is an established Fintech company, graded Weak on FrontierLab's evidence-based quality rubric (data as of 2026-10-05). Revenue grew 5.7% year-over-year at a 45.8% gross margin. Gross-profits-to-assets is 0.19; Rule of 40 is 24.5. Net share issuance -7.8% YoY (buying back shares). No risk flags are currently noted. Analyst mix: 14 buy / 35 hold / 3 sell. Track record: 35% of Weak-graded names beat the S&P over 63 sessions (95% CI 18–57%, N=20). Median excess vs the S&P was -13%.
These sentences are generated from the day's data by deterministic templates.
Key quality signals
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 5.7% |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 45.8% |
| Gross profits / assets | 0.19 |
| Rule of 40 | 24.5 |
| Net margin | 18.8% |
| Cash runway (months) | — |
| PEG | 0.8 |
| Price / sales | 1.3 |
Quality checklist
Each line is one quality test behind the grade — ✓ passed · ~ borderline · ✗ failed. Hover a metric in the tables below for what it means.
- ✗ Revenue growth — 5.7% (pass ≥ 20%)
- ✗ Gross profits / assets — 0.19 (pass ≥ 0.33)
- · Rule of 40 — 24.5 (context — graded for software only)
- ✓ Gross margin — 45.8% (pass ≥ 45% · Fintech)
- ✓ Cash generation
- ✓ Share dilution — -7.8%
- ~ Competitive moat — Narrow
- ✓ Market size (TAM) — Large
Grade history
- 2026-08-07 — Weak (from Insufficient)
- 2026-07-31 — Insufficient (from Weak)
- 2026-06-10 — Weak (first graded)
Every grade change since FrontierLab began tracking this name — the receipts behind the current grade.
How have Weak-graded names performed?
The forward returns of all Weak-graded names since each grade was recorded — the bucket this name currently sits in, not a forecast of this individual stock.
| Window | Forward record vs the S&P | Median |
|---|---|---|
| ~1 month | 32% of Weak-graded names beat the S&P over 21 sessions (95% CI 15–54%, N=19). | Median excess vs the S&P was -3%. |
| ~3 months | 35% of Weak-graded names beat the S&P over 63 sessions (95% CI 18–57%, N=20). | Median excess vs the S&P was -13%. |
| ~6 months | building — 46 more sessions needed | |
Scope: these are forward returns vs the S&P among names still covered at each horizon's end, within the curated universe — not a survivorship-clean whole-market backtest. Names later dropped from coverage are counted as attrition (not hidden), and single-session moves beyond ±300% are treated as split/data artifacts and excluded. How this is measured → · Full track record →
How it compares
Coarse same-sector, same-stage context — not a percentile or rank. GP/A is graded on its absolute level, not position.
Fundamentals
| Market cap | $45.17B |
|---|---|
| Stage | Established |
| Share issuance (YoY) | -7.8% · buying back shares |
| Moat | Narrow |
| TAM | LARGE |
| P/E (trailing) | 10 |
| EPS (trailing) | $5.29 |
| Burn multiple | — |
| Gross-margin trend (pts) | -1.1 |
| Cash / assets | 0.14 |
| Accruals (%) | -3.2% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 0.8 |
| Statements as of | Q2 FY2026 · filed 2026-07-28 |
Momentum context — describes the past, not a signal
Low reached Feb 12, 2026 · high reached Oct 8, 2025 — by daily close.
| Price | $52.80 (as of 2026-10-02) |
|---|---|
| Last session move | — |
| % off 52-wk high | -33.4% |
| RSI (14) | 44 |
| Relative volume | 0.7× |
Insider activity (90 days)
| Cluster buyers | 0 |
|---|---|
| Sellers | 3 |
Insider selling is routine diversification, not a bearish signal.
Analyst mix
| Strong buy | 4 |
|---|---|
| Buy | 10 |
| Hold | 35 |
| Sell | 3 |
| Strong sell | 0 |
Ratings are context, not a price target. "Momentum" = how the mix changed over recent weeks, not a forecast.
From the headlines
PayPal hints at BNPL holiday use; mixed analyst sentiment on growth stocks.
- Peter Thiel Was an Early Outside Investor in Facebook and Co-Founded Both PayPal and Palantir Before Building a Hedge Fund Now Concentrated in Power and Energy Stocks. Here's What That Track Record Says About Following His Contrarian Bets.
- PayPal hints at BNPL holiday use
AI take — daily, AI-generated
AI leans cautious
Weak grade, low profitability (GP/A 0.19), and modest 5.7% growth with a reasonable 0.8 PEG don't offset structural headwinds; BNPL hints are speculative.
Generated by an AI model from the day's news — an opinion for context only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a price target.
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Data as of 2026-10-05 08:19 (end-of-day). How grades are computed →