Affirm Holdings, Inc. AFRM
Weak Fintech sector · Buy-now-pay-later lender — fast growth, but credit risk and rates are the watch-outs.
▼ Downgraded Mixed → Weak on 2026-09-03.
🗓 Reports earnings in 30 days (2026-11-05) — calendar context, not a prediction.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is an established Fintech company, graded Weak on FrontierLab's evidence-based quality rubric (data as of 2026-10-05). Revenue grew 29.8% year-over-year at a 68.1% gross margin. Gross-profits-to-assets is 0.18; Rule of 40 is 45.3. Net share issuance 2.1% YoY (modest issuance). 1 risk flag is noted below. Analyst mix: 31 buy / 10 hold / 0 sell. Track record: 35% of Weak-graded names beat the S&P over 63 sessions (95% CI 18–57%, N=20). Median excess vs the S&P was -13%.
These sentences are generated from the day's data by deterministic templates.
Key quality signals
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 29.8% |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 68.1% |
| Gross profits / assets | 0.18 |
| Rule of 40 | 45.3 |
| Net margin | 15.5% |
| Cash runway (months) | — |
| PEG | — |
| Price / sales | 5.7 |
Quality checklist
Each line is one quality test behind the grade — ✓ passed · ~ borderline · ✗ failed. Hover a metric in the tables below for what it means.
- ✓ Revenue growth — 29.8% (pass ≥ 20%)
- ✗ Gross profits / assets — 0.18 (pass ≥ 0.33)
- · Rule of 40 — 45.3 (context — graded for software only)
- ✓ Gross margin — 68.1% (pass ≥ 45% · Fintech)
- ✓ Cash generation
- ~ Share dilution — 2.1%
- ✗ Competitive moat — None
- ~ Market size (TAM) — Mod
Grade history
- 2026-09-03 — Weak (from Mixed)
- 2026-06-10 — Mixed (first graded)
Every grade change since FrontierLab began tracking this name — the receipts behind the current grade.
How have Weak-graded names performed?
The forward returns of all Weak-graded names since each grade was recorded — the bucket this name currently sits in, not a forecast of this individual stock.
| Window | Forward record vs the S&P | Median |
|---|---|---|
| ~1 month | 32% of Weak-graded names beat the S&P over 21 sessions (95% CI 15–54%, N=19). | Median excess vs the S&P was -3%. |
| ~3 months | 35% of Weak-graded names beat the S&P over 63 sessions (95% CI 18–57%, N=20). | Median excess vs the S&P was -13%. |
| ~6 months | building — 46 more sessions needed | |
How have this name's flags scored?
| Flag | N | Mean excess vs S&P |
|---|---|---|
| Hyper-expansion — assets up ~42% in a year; aggressive expanders have historically lagged. | sample still too small to report (need ≥ 8) | |
These per-flag figures are observational — a flag firing is not a randomized assignment, so any edge can reflect what kind of names trip a flag, not the flag itself. Descriptive, not causal.
Scope: these are forward returns vs the S&P among names still covered at each horizon's end, within the curated universe — not a survivorship-clean whole-market backtest. Names later dropped from coverage are counted as attrition (not hidden), and single-session moves beyond ±300% are treated as split/data artifacts and excluded. How this is measured → · Full track record →
How it compares
Coarse same-sector, same-stage context — not a percentile or rank. GP/A is graded on its absolute level, not position.
Fundamentals
| Market cap | $23.70B |
|---|---|
| Stage | Established |
| Share issuance (YoY) | 2.1% · modest issuance |
| Moat | None |
| TAM | MOD |
| P/E (trailing) | 12.8 |
| EPS (trailing) | $5.52 |
| Burn multiple | — |
| Gross-margin trend (pts) | 0.6 |
| Cash / assets | 0.16 |
| Accruals (%) | 5.2% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Statements as of | Q4 FY2026 · filed 2026-08-27 |
Momentum context — describes the past, not a signal
Low reached Mar 27, 2026 · high reached Jul 6, 2026 — by daily close.
| Price | $70.77 (as of 2026-10-02) |
|---|---|
| Last session move | — |
| % off 52-wk high | -21.7% |
| RSI (14) | 48 |
| Relative volume | 0.6× |
Risk flags
Insider activity (90 days)
| Cluster buyers | 0 |
|---|---|
| Sellers | 5 |
Insider selling is routine diversification, not a bearish signal.
Analyst mix
| Strong buy | 9 |
|---|---|
| Buy | 22 |
| Hold | 10 |
| Sell | 0 |
| Strong sell | 0 |
Ratings are context, not a price target. "Momentum" = how the mix changed over recent weeks, not a forecast.
From the headlines
Affirm outperforms market; card product reshaping direct-to-consumer growth strategy.
- Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Outperforms Broader Market: What You Need to Know
- How Is Affirm Card Reshaping AFRM's Direct-to-Consumer Growth?
AI take — daily, AI-generated
AI leans mixed
Solid 29.8% growth and strong margins (68.1%) are undermined by weak profitability (GP/A 0.18) and rising dilution (13%), signaling shareholder dilution to fund growth; card strategy is promising but unproven.
Generated by an AI model from the day's news — an opinion for context only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a price target.
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Data as of 2026-10-05 08:19 (end-of-day). How grades are computed →