Coinbase Global, Inc. COIN
Weak Fintech sector · The largest US crypto exchange — earnings swing hard with crypto cycles.
Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) is an established Fintech company, graded Weak on FrontierLab's evidence-based quality rubric (data as of 2026-10-05). Revenue grew -10.4% year-over-year at a 76% gross margin. Gross-profits-to-assets is 0.18; Rule of 40 is 0.6. Net share issuance -5.6% YoY (buying back shares). No risk flags are currently noted. Analyst mix: 32 buy / 10 hold / 3 sell. Track record: 35% of Weak-graded names beat the S&P over 63 sessions (95% CI 18–57%, N=20). Median excess vs the S&P was -13%.
These sentences are generated from the day's data by deterministic templates.
Key quality signals
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -10.4% |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 76% |
| Gross profits / assets | 0.18 |
| Rule of 40 | 0.6 |
| Net margin | 11% |
| Cash runway (months) | — |
| PEG | — |
| Price / sales | 7.7 |
Quality checklist
Each line is one quality test behind the grade — ✓ passed · ~ borderline · ✗ failed. Hover a metric in the tables below for what it means.
- ✗ Revenue growth — -10.4% (pass ≥ 20%)
- ✗ Gross profits / assets — 0.18 (pass ≥ 0.33)
- · Rule of 40 — 0.6 (context — graded for software only)
- ✓ Gross margin — 76% (pass ≥ 45% · Fintech)
- ✓ Cash generation
- ✓ Share dilution — -5.6%
- ~ Competitive moat — Narrow
- ✓ Market size (TAM) — Large
Grade history
Graded Weak since 2026-06-10 — no grade changes recorded yet.
How have Weak-graded names performed?
The forward returns of all Weak-graded names since each grade was recorded — the bucket this name currently sits in, not a forecast of this individual stock.
| Window | Forward record vs the S&P | Median |
|---|---|---|
| ~1 month | 32% of Weak-graded names beat the S&P over 21 sessions (95% CI 15–54%, N=19). | Median excess vs the S&P was -3%. |
| ~3 months | 35% of Weak-graded names beat the S&P over 63 sessions (95% CI 18–57%, N=20). | Median excess vs the S&P was -13%. |
| ~6 months | building — 46 more sessions needed | |
Scope: these are forward returns vs the S&P among names still covered at each horizon's end, within the curated universe — not a survivorship-clean whole-market backtest. Names later dropped from coverage are counted as attrition (not hidden), and single-session moves beyond ±300% are treated as split/data artifacts and excluded. How this is measured → · Full track record →
How it compares
Coarse same-sector, same-stage context — not a percentile or rank. GP/A is graded on its absolute level, not position.
Fundamentals
| Market cap | $48.28B |
|---|---|
| Stage | Established |
| Share issuance (YoY) | -5.6% · buying back shares |
| Moat | Narrow |
| TAM | LARGE |
| P/E (trailing) | — |
| EPS (trailing) | $-3.84 |
| Burn multiple | — |
| Gross-margin trend (pts) | 2.1 |
| Cash / assets | 0.34 |
| Accruals (%) | -14.6% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | — |
| Statements as of | Q2 FY2026 · filed 2026-07-30 |
Momentum context — describes the past, not a signal
Low reached Feb 12, 2026 · high reached Oct 8, 2025 — by daily close.
| Price | $183.00 (as of 2026-10-02) |
|---|---|
| Last session move | — |
| % off 52-wk high | -54.5% |
| RSI (14) | 49 |
| Relative volume | 1.3× |
Insider activity (90 days)
| Cluster buyers | 0 |
|---|---|
| Sellers | 4 |
Insider selling is routine diversification, not a bearish signal.
Analyst mix
| Strong buy | 11 |
|---|---|
| Buy | 21 |
| Hold | 10 |
| Sell | 1 |
| Strong sell | 2 |
Ratings are context, not a price target. "Momentum" = how the mix changed over recent weeks, not a forecast.
From the headlines
Wells Fargo sets $200 target; Coinbase joins stablecoin initiative with partners.
- Coinbase Stock Got a $200 Target From Wells Fargo. Here’s How Its CFO’s Cost Pledge Changes the Math
- Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, and Coinbase Commit $1 Billion to New Stablecoin: Is Open USD a Challenge to Tether, USDC, and RLUSD?
- Grok Dominates Coinbase’s AI Trading with a 60% Share: Which Coins Are Being Purchased?
AI take — daily, AI-generated
AI leans cautious
Negative 10.4% growth, weak profitability (GP/A 0.18), and structural crypto-market headwinds make this a value trap despite high margins; Wells Fargo target and stablecoin news don't fix the growth problem.
Generated by an AI model from the day's news — an opinion for context only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a price target.
Similar Fintech names
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Data as of 2026-10-05 08:19 (end-of-day). How grades are computed →