BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BBAI
Weak Emerging Frontier sector · AI decision-intelligence for defense and government.
🗓 Reports earnings in 79 days (2026-11-09) — calendar context, not a prediction.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) is an established Emerging Frontier company, graded Weak on FrontierLab's evidence-based quality rubric (data as of 2026-08-21). Revenue grew -13.7% year-over-year at a 27.9% gross margin. Gross-profits-to-assets is 0.04; Rule of 40 is -86.5. Net share issuance 49.4% YoY (heavy issuance). 4 risk flags are noted below. Analyst mix: 6 buy / 3 hold / 0 sell.
These sentences are generated from the day's data by deterministic templates.
Key quality signals
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -13.7% |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 27.9% |
| Gross profits / assets | 0.04 |
| Rule of 40 | -86.5 |
| Net margin | -72.8% |
| Cash runway (months) | 6.1 |
| PEG | — |
| Price / sales | 11.2 |
Quality checklist
Each line is one quality test behind the grade — ✓ passed · ~ borderline · ✗ failed. Hover a metric in the tables below for what it means.
- ✗ Revenue growth — -13.7% (pass ≥ 20%)
- ✗ Gross profits / assets — 0.04 (pass ≥ 0.33)
- · Rule of 40 — -86.5 (context — graded for software only)
- ~ Gross margin — 27.9% (pass ≥ 45% · Emerging Frontier)
- ✗ Cash generation
- ✗ Share dilution — 49.4%
- ✗ Competitive moat — None
- ~ Market size (TAM) — Mod
Grade history
Graded Weak since 2026-06-10 — no grade changes recorded yet.
How have Weak-graded names performed?
The forward returns of all Weak-graded names since each grade was recorded — the bucket this name currently sits in, not a forecast of this individual stock.
| Window | Forward record vs the S&P | Median |
|---|---|---|
| ~1 month | 60% of Weak-graded names beat the S&P over 21 sessions (95% CI 39–78%, N=20). | Median excess vs the S&P was +0.6%. |
| ~3 months | building — 13 more sessions needed | |
| ~6 months | building — 76 more sessions needed | |
How have this name's flags scored?
| Flag | N | Mean excess vs S&P |
|---|---|---|
| Burning cash — operating margin is negative. | 35 | +7.4% |
| Cash runway ~6 months at current burn — a raise (and dilution) looks likely. | sample still too small to report (need ≥ 8) | |
| Thin gross margin — keeps little of each sales dollar (judge it against its industry). | 20 | +2.1% |
| Heavy dilution (~49%/yr) — top-decile share issuers have historically underperformed. | sample still too small to report (need ≥ 8) | |
These per-flag figures are observational — a flag firing is not a randomized assignment, so any edge can reflect what kind of names trip a flag, not the flag itself. Descriptive, not causal.
Scope: these are forward returns vs the S&P among names still covered at each horizon's end, within the curated universe — not a survivorship-clean whole-market backtest. Names later dropped from coverage are counted as attrition (not hidden), and single-session moves beyond ±300% are treated as split/data artifacts and excluded. How this is measured → · Full track record →
How it compares
Coarse same-sector, same-stage context — not a percentile or rank. GP/A is graded on its absolute level, not position.
Fundamentals
| Market cap | $1.48B |
|---|---|
| Stage | Established |
| Share issuance (YoY) | 49.4% · heavy issuance |
| Moat | None |
| TAM | MOD |
| P/E (trailing) | — |
| EPS (trailing) | $-0.21 |
| Burn multiple | 0.5 |
| Gross-margin trend (pts) | -0.1 |
| Cash / assets | 0.04 |
| Accruals (%) | -2% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | — |
| Statements as of | Q2 FY2026 · filed 2026-07-30 |
Momentum context — describes the past, not a signal
Low reached Jul 29, 2026 · high reached Oct 14, 2025 — by daily close.
| Price | $3.08 (as of 2026-08-20) |
|---|---|
| Last session move | — |
| % off 52-wk high | -67.1% |
| RSI (14) | 46 |
| Relative volume | 0.7× |
Risk flags
Analyst mix
| Strong buy | 2 |
|---|---|
| Buy | 4 |
| Hold | 3 |
| Sell | 0 |
| Strong sell | 0 |
Ratings are context, not a price target. "Momentum" = how the mix changed over recent weeks, not a forecast.
From the headlines
AI take — daily, AI-generated
AI leans cautious
Negative growth (-13.7%), weak margins, and only 6 months of runway make this a deteriorating story despite 100% retail enthusiasm.
Generated by an AI model from the day's news — an opinion for context only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a price target.
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Data as of 2026-08-21 08:12 (end-of-day). How grades are computed →