Rivian Automotive, Inc. RIVN
Weak EV & Mobility sector · Premium EV trucks/SUVs with a VW partnership — scaling production while burning cash.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) is an established EV & Mobility company, graded Weak on FrontierLab's evidence-based quality rubric (data as of 2026-10-05). Revenue grew 14.2% year-over-year at a 7.5% gross margin. Gross-profits-to-assets is 0.03; Rule of 40 is -45.9. Net share issuance 11.4% YoY (heavy issuance). 3 risk flags are noted below. Analyst mix: 20 buy / 9 hold / 5 sell. Track record: 35% of Weak-graded names beat the S&P over 63 sessions (95% CI 18–57%, N=20). Median excess vs the S&P was -13%.
These sentences are generated from the day's data by deterministic templates.
Key quality signals
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 14.2% |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 7.5% |
| Gross profits / assets | 0.03 |
| Rule of 40 | -45.9 |
| Net margin | -60.1% |
| Cash runway (months) | 34.5 |
| PEG | — |
| Price / sales | 3 |
Quality checklist
Each line is one quality test behind the grade — ✓ passed · ~ borderline · ✗ failed. Hover a metric in the tables below for what it means.
- ~ Revenue growth — 14.2% (pass ≥ 20%)
- ✗ Gross profits / assets — 0.03 (pass ≥ 0.33)
- · Rule of 40 — -45.9 (context — graded for software only)
- ✗ Gross margin — 7.5% (pass ≥ 25% · EV & Mobility)
- ~ Cash generation
- ✗ Share dilution — 11.4%
- ✗ Competitive moat — None
- ✓ Market size (TAM) — Large
Grade history
Graded Weak since 2026-06-10 — no grade changes recorded yet.
How have Weak-graded names performed?
The forward returns of all Weak-graded names since each grade was recorded — the bucket this name currently sits in, not a forecast of this individual stock.
| Window | Forward record vs the S&P | Median |
|---|---|---|
| ~1 month | 32% of Weak-graded names beat the S&P over 21 sessions (95% CI 15–54%, N=19). | Median excess vs the S&P was -3%. |
| ~3 months | 35% of Weak-graded names beat the S&P over 63 sessions (95% CI 18–57%, N=20). | Median excess vs the S&P was -13%. |
| ~6 months | building — 46 more sessions needed | |
How have this name's flags scored?
| Flag | N | Mean excess vs S&P |
|---|---|---|
| Burning cash — operating margin is negative. | 36 | -6.5% |
| Thin gross margin — keeps little of each sales dollar (judge it against its industry). | 21 | -18.4% |
| Heavy dilution (~11%/yr) — top-decile share issuers have historically underperformed. | sample still too small to report (need ≥ 8) | |
These per-flag figures are observational — a flag firing is not a randomized assignment, so any edge can reflect what kind of names trip a flag, not the flag itself. Descriptive, not causal.
Scope: these are forward returns vs the S&P among names still covered at each horizon's end, within the curated universe — not a survivorship-clean whole-market backtest. Names later dropped from coverage are counted as attrition (not hidden), and single-session moves beyond ±300% are treated as split/data artifacts and excluded. How this is measured → · Full track record →
How it compares
Coarse same-sector, same-stage context — not a percentile or rank. GP/A is graded on its absolute level, not position.
Fundamentals
| Market cap | $17.36B |
|---|---|
| Stage | Established |
| Share issuance (YoY) | 11.4% · heavy issuance |
| Moat | None |
| TAM | LARGE |
| P/E (trailing) | — |
| EPS (trailing) | $-2.58 |
| Burn multiple | 0.3 |
| Gross-margin trend (pts) | 11.8 |
| Cash / assets | 0.35 |
| Accruals (%) | -9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | — |
| Statements as of | Q2 FY2026 · filed 2026-07-30 |
Momentum context — describes the past, not a signal
Low reached Nov 4, 2025 · high reached Dec 19, 2025 — by daily close.
| Price | $14.30 (as of 2026-10-02) |
|---|---|
| Last session move | — |
| % off 52-wk high | -37% |
| RSI (14) | 36 |
| Relative volume | 2.5× |
Risk flags
Positive signals
Insider activity (90 days)
| Cluster buyers | 0 |
|---|---|
| Sellers | 2 |
Insider selling is routine diversification, not a bearish signal.
Analyst mix
| Strong buy | 5 |
|---|---|
| Buy | 15 |
| Hold | 9 |
| Sell | 4 |
| Strong sell | 1 |
Ratings are context, not a price target. "Momentum" = how the mix changed over recent weeks, not a forecast.
From the headlines
Deliveries beat estimates but stock fell; survival concerns vs. Lucid raised.
- Rivian vs. Lucid: Only 1 of These EV Stocks Survives to 2030. Here's Which One.
- Why Rivian (RIVN) Stock Is Falling Today
- Stocktwits Zero To Sixty — Tesla Deliveries Clear The Street, BYD Widens The Gap, Rivian Holds Forecast, Ford And GM EV Sales Fall Hard
- Tesla, Rivian Deliveries Beat Estimates: Analysts Explain Why TSLA Rallied While RIVN Fell
AI take — daily, AI-generated
AI leans cautious
Rivian's delivery beat is overshadowed by razor-thin 7.5% gross margins, minimal profitability (GP/A 0.03), and rising dilution—survival runway of 34.5 months is concerning even if growth is solid.
Generated by an AI model from the day's news — an opinion for context only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a price target.
Similar EV & Mobility names
← All EV & Mobility names · Open RIVN in the interactive screener →
Data as of 2026-10-05 08:19 (end-of-day). How grades are computed →