Vistra Corp. VST
Weak Clean Energy sector · Texas-centric power producer leveraged to rising electricity demand.
🗓 Reports earnings in 31 days (2026-11-06) — calendar context, not a prediction.
Vistra Corp. (VST) is an established Clean Energy company, graded Weak on FrontierLab's evidence-based quality rubric (data as of 2026-10-05). Revenue grew -28.4% year-over-year at a 13% gross margin. Gross-profits-to-assets is 0.05; Rule of 40 is -26.1. Net share issuance 0.1% YoY (flat share count). 1 risk flag is noted below. Analyst mix: 22 buy / 2 hold / 0 sell. 1 distinct insider cluster-buyer in the last 90 days. Track record: 35% of Weak-graded names beat the S&P over 63 sessions (95% CI 18–57%, N=20). Median excess vs the S&P was -13%.
These sentences are generated from the day's data by deterministic templates.
Key quality signals
| Revenue growth (YoY) | -28.4% |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 13% |
| Gross profits / assets | 0.05 |
| Rule of 40 | -26.1 |
| Net margin | 2.3% |
| Cash runway (months) | — |
| PEG | — |
| Price / sales | 3 |
Quality checklist
Each line is one quality test behind the grade — ✓ passed · ~ borderline · ✗ failed. Hover a metric in the tables below for what it means.
- ✗ Revenue growth — -28.4% (pass ≥ 20%)
- ✗ Gross profits / assets — 0.05 (pass ≥ 0.33)
- · Rule of 40 — -26.1 (context — graded for software only)
- ✗ Gross margin — 13% (pass ≥ 35% · Clean Energy)
- ✓ Cash generation
- ✓ Share dilution — 0.1%
- ~ Competitive moat — Narrow
- ✓ Market size (TAM) — Large
Grade history
Graded Weak since 2026-06-10 — no grade changes recorded yet.
How have Weak-graded names performed?
The forward returns of all Weak-graded names since each grade was recorded — the bucket this name currently sits in, not a forecast of this individual stock.
| Window | Forward record vs the S&P | Median |
|---|---|---|
| ~1 month | 32% of Weak-graded names beat the S&P over 21 sessions (95% CI 15–54%, N=19). | Median excess vs the S&P was -3%. |
| ~3 months | 35% of Weak-graded names beat the S&P over 63 sessions (95% CI 18–57%, N=20). | Median excess vs the S&P was -13%. |
| ~6 months | building — 46 more sessions needed | |
How have this name's flags scored?
| Flag | N | Mean excess vs S&P |
|---|---|---|
| Thin gross margin — keeps little of each sales dollar (judge it against its industry). | 21 | -18.4% |
These per-flag figures are observational — a flag firing is not a randomized assignment, so any edge can reflect what kind of names trip a flag, not the flag itself. Descriptive, not causal.
Scope: these are forward returns vs the S&P among names still covered at each horizon's end, within the curated universe — not a survivorship-clean whole-market backtest. Names later dropped from coverage are counted as attrition (not hidden), and single-session moves beyond ±300% are treated as split/data artifacts and excluded. How this is measured → · Full track record →
How it compares
Coarse same-sector, same-stage context — not a percentile or rank. GP/A is graded on its absolute level, not position.
Fundamentals
| Market cap | $47.21B |
|---|---|
| Stage | Established |
| Share issuance (YoY) | 0.1% · flat share count |
| Moat | Narrow |
| TAM | LARGE |
| P/E (trailing) | 23.6 |
| EPS (trailing) | $5.94 |
| Burn multiple | — |
| Gross-margin trend (pts) | -27.6 |
| Cash / assets | 0.01 |
| Accruals (%) | -7.2% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 3 |
| Statements as of | Q2 FY2026 · filed 2026-08-10 |
Momentum context — describes the past, not a signal
Low reached May 19, 2026 · high reached Oct 15, 2025 — by daily close.
| Price | $140.02 (as of 2026-10-02) |
|---|---|
| Last session move | — |
| % off 52-wk high | -35.5% |
| RSI (14) | 47 |
| Relative volume | 2.4× |
Risk flags
Insider activity (90 days)
| Cluster buyers | 1 |
|---|---|
| Sellers | 2 |
Insider selling is routine diversification, not a bearish signal.
Analyst mix
| Strong buy | 7 |
|---|---|
| Buy | 15 |
| Hold | 2 |
| Sell | 0 |
| Strong sell | 0 |
Ratings are context, not a price target. "Momentum" = how the mix changed over recent weeks, not a forecast.
From the headlines
$4.2B federal nuclear loan shifts investment narrative; federal support bolsters expansion.
- Did a US$4 Billion Federal Nuclear Loan Just Shift Vistra's (VST) Investment Narrative?
- U.S. to reportedly lend Vistra $4.2 billion to expand nuclear power output
- Trump Administration Reportedly Prepares $4B Federal Loan to Expand Vistra’s Nuclear Capacity
AI take — daily, AI-generated
AI leans cautious
Collapsing growth (-28.4%), razor-thin margins (13%), and weak asset productivity make this a value trap; the federal loan is nice but doesn't fix the underlying business deterioration.
Generated by an AI model from the day's news — an opinion for context only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a price target.
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Data as of 2026-10-05 08:19 (end-of-day). How grades are computed →